Renewables could meet 80 percent of all energy needs by 2050, says IPCC

The findings, from over 120 researchers working with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), also indicate that the growing use of renewable energy could lead to cumulative greenhouse gas savings equivalent to 220 to 560 Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide between 2010 and 2050.

The upper end of the scenarios assessed, representing a cut of around a third in greenhouse gas emissions from business-as-usual projections, could assist in keeping concentrations of greenhouse gases at 450 parts per million.

It could also help to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius – an aim recognized in the United Nations Climate Convention's Cancun Agreements.

The findings, approved by member countries of the IPCC meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, are a summary for policy-makers,  of a comprehensive assessment compiled by over 120 leading experts.

Geothermal power station, Fang, Thailand. Photo © 2000 Geothermal Education Office

Ramon Pichs, Co-Chair of the IPCC's Working Group III, that oversaw the report, said it showed that it is was not resources but public policies that will either expand or constrain renewable energy development over the coming decades. Developing countries had an important stake in this future — this is where most of the 1.4 billion people without access to electricity live yet also where some of the best conditions exist for renewable energy deployment.

Four scenarios

The six renewable energy technologies reviewed are:

• Bioenergy, including energy crops; forest, agricultural and livestock residues and so called second generation biofuel
• Direct solar energy including photovoltaics and concentrating solar power
• Geothermal energy, based on heat extraction from the Earth‘s interior
• Hydropower, including run-of-river, in-stream or dam projects with reservoirs
• Ocean energy, ranging from barrages to ocean currents and ones which harness temperature differences in the marine realm
• Wind energy, including on and offshore systems .

The most optimistic of four scenarios set out in the report projects that renewable energy could account for as much as 77 percent of the world‘s energy demand by 2050, amounting to about 314 of 407 Exajoules per year. This is over three times the annual energy supply in the United States in 2005, or a similar level of supply on the Continent of Europe.

Seventy percent is up from just under 13 percent of the total primary energy supply of around 490 Exajoules in 2008. Each of the scenarios is underpinned by a range of variables such as changes in energy efficiency, population growth and per capita consumption. These lead to varying levels of total primary energy supply in 2050, with the lowest of the four scenarios seeing renewable energy accounting for a share of 15 percent in 2050, based on a total primary energy supply of 749 Exajoules.

Declining costs

While the report concludes that the proportion of renewable energy will probably increase even without enabling policies, past experience has shown that the largest increases come with concerted policy efforts.

Illustration of a massive ocean turbine farm. Credit: Voice of America

Though in some cases renewable energy technologies are already economically competitive, the production costs are currently often higher than market energy prices. However, if environmental impacts such as emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases were monetized and included in energy prices, more renewable energy technologies may become economically attractive.

For most of them, costs have declined over the last decades and the authors expect significant technical advancements and further cost reductions in the future, resulting in a greater potential for climate change mitigation.

Public policies that recognize and reflect the wider economic, social and environmental benefits of renewable energies, including their potential to cut air pollution and improve public health, will be key for meeting the highest renewables deployment scenarios.

Increasing the share of renewables requires additional short-term and long-term integration efforts,the report says. Studies clearly show that combining different variable renewable sources, and resources from larger geographical areas, will be beneficial in smoothing the variability and decreasing overall uncertainty for the power system.

Key findings

• Of the around 300 Gigawatts (GW) of new electricity generating capacity added globally between 2008 and 2009, 140 GW came from renewable energy.
• Despite global financial challenges, renewable energy capacity grew in 2009—wind by over 30 percent; hydropower by three percent; grid-connected photovoltaics by over 50 percent; geothermal by 4 percent; solar water/heating by over 20 percent and ethanol and biodiesel production rose by 10 percent and 9 percent respectively.
• Developing countries host more than 50 percent of current global renewable energy capacity.
• Most of the reviewed scenarios estimate that renewables will contribute more to a low carbon energy supply by 2050 than nuclear power or fossil fuels using carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• The technical potential of renewable energy technologies exceeds the current global energy demand by a considerable amount — globally and in respect of most regions of the world.
• Under the scenarios analyzed in-depth, less than 2.5 percent of the globally available technical potential for renewables is used — in other words over 97 percent is untapped underlining that availability of renewable source will not be a limiting factor.
• Accelerating the deployment of renewable energies will present new technological and institutional challenges, in particular integrating them into existing energy supply systems and end use sectors.
• According to the four scenarios analyzed in detail, the decadal global investments in the renewable power sector range from 1,360 to 5,100 billion US dollars to 2020 and 1,490 to 7,180 billion US dollars for the decade 2021 to 2030. For the lower values, the average yearly investments are smaller than the renewable power sector investments reported for 2009.
• A combination of targeted public policies allied to research and development investments could reduce fuel and financing costs leading to lower additional costs for renewable energy technologies.
• Public policymakers could draw on a range of existing experience in order to design and implement the most effective enabling policies - there is no one-size-fits-all policy for encouraging renewables.

http://www.peopleandplanet.net/?lid=29825&topic=23&section=36

By Jung Ha-won (AFP) 

SEOUL — North Korea is hoping to sell UN-backed carbon credits from hydropower plants now being built, an aid group said Tuesday, as the isolated communist state struggles to secure more sources of hard cash.

If approved by the United Nations, the North would be able to sell carbon credits to governments and companies trying to meet global greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

The North asked the Hanns Seidel Foundation, a Munich-based development NGO, to help register its hydropower projects at the UN-approved verification agency known as TUV NORD, said the foundation's representative in Seoul.

"We are talking about eight power plants, with the smallest size about 7.5 megawatts. These are not big projects but small or medium-sized projects," Bernhard Seliger told AFP.

None has yet been completed, he said.

"I saw some (construction) sites in South Hamkyong province but that's not all. There are other plants in other regions," Seliger said, adding that some of the projects are led by the UN Development Programme.

The Hanns Seidel Foundation has been working since 2003 to build the North's development capacity, and in 2008 organised a seminar on carbon trading for Pyongyang officials at their request.

The tradeable credits, called Certified Emissions Reductions, are awarded for approved clean-energy projects such as hydropower plants or wind farms.

Big polluters elsewhere in the world can buy them as part of their efforts to cut emissions.

Seliger said his foundation is helping the North to prepare for the auditing process required to join the UN carbon credit trading system known as the Clean Development Mechanism.

"One good thing about this project is that it is very transparent, involving monitoring and auditing on an annual basis... I think it is very good for North Korea to participate in such an international regime," said Seliger.

An official at a South Korean state agency, the Korea Energy Management Corp, said registration would take at least a year or two and it was unclear how much the North would be able to earn if approved.

The official, who declined to be identified, said a typical eight-megawatt hydropower plant could yield about 19,500 carbon credits each year, each of which was currently traded at 12 euros in global markets.

This would amount to around $327,000 a year.

But some buyers may shun the communist state, given its history of nuclear and missile development which has led to international sanctions.

"Government buyers will certainly shy away from dealing with the North," said Koo Jung-Han, a researcher at the Korea Institute of Finance.

"But private companies have few reasons not to buy credits from the North as long as it can offer a competitively low price. However, the big question is whether the North will be able to build the plants without outside financiers."

Koo said that countries hoping to buy carbon credits from upcoming overseas projects often encourage investment in the ventures by their own finance companies.

"But what kind of financial companies will take a plunge in projects in such a volatile, politically risky country like North Korea?"

The North suffers persistent power shortages even in the showpiece capital Pyongyang.

Many rural areas receive power only during key agricultural seasons, and must rely for the rest of the year on alternative fuels, according to a recent policy paper published by the Nautilus Institute think-tank.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gljmN_oNmfTaDFViup4tD9-NYsTQ?docId=CNG.d30777a4857e4804acfba9058a4da4df.f1

EU votes to ban HFC-23 carbon credits

 The European Parliament has voted to ban the use of HFC-23 and N20 credits in Phase 3 of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme – also known as carbon credits.

The ban, which runs from 2013 to 2020 was approved by the Climate Change Committee, however changes to the original proposal were made at the last minute.

The prohibition will be delayed until May 2013, as opposed to the original date of January 1, after the first deadline was resisted several countries, including Italy and Spain, which were allegedly being lobbied by pro-carbon credit organisations.

Connie Hedegaard, the EU’s climate action commissioner, said that the industrial pollutants offered questionable value for money, geographical distribution and environmental benefit.

“Continuing to use them is also not in the EU’s interest as doing so could discourage host countries from supporting cheaper and more direct action to cut these emissions.”

“Our aim is not to reduce the number of credits available but to ensure the international carbon market is based on a better quality and distribution of credits.”

The decision was welcomed by the Environmental Investigation Agency, who had previously addressed a European Parliament hearing on the subject.

It argued that continued use of HFC-23 credits stifles investment in sustainable projects, is poor value for European consumers and conflicts with the goals of the Montreal Protocol on ozone-depleting substances.

EIA Global Environment Campaign leader Fionnuala Walravens, says: “Despite the delay, which may allow further use of about 50 million carbon credits, this is indeed an historic day,”

“Industry interests have pushed hard for the ban to be delayed beyond May 2013 and today’s outcome is a compromise. It has demonstrated how all interests can unite for the sake of the climate and for the credibility of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme.”

http://www.racplus.com/news/eu-votes-to-ban-carbon-credits/8610285.article

Year of reckoning for Singapore biofuel investments

Long road ahead for CO2 trade in China: observers

A Chinese carbon market remains years away despite high expectation, observers said Monday.

Hydro-intensive Sichuan in southern China on Monday became the latest province to ponder the introduction of a local emissions trading scheme, as Chinese regions scramble for position in the emerging low-carbon market.

Guangdong and Hebei provinces have already submitted bids to host carbon trading schemes to the central government in Beijing, as has the city of Wuhan in Hubei province.

But despite much talk about an emerging Chinese market, a mandatory carbon regime in China is thought by many market watchers to be several years away at least.

“It can take three to five years or even longer before a market emerges,” Wilson Tang, China director at carbon trading company Climate Change Capital told Point Carbon News.

A lack of a trading infrastructure and the fact that there are no real records of Chinese firms’ emissions are major obstacles to introducing a scheme, he said.

Tang added that the emergence of regional schemes could be a useful start on the path to a nationwide emissions trading scheme (ETS).

Local interest in emissions trading has sky-rocketed since Chinese media reported in June last year that an inter-ministerial meeting headed by China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) would set up a pilot scheme within five years.

Some 20 regional carbon exchanges have been initiated over the past three years, although most of them have yet to offer any trade on their platforms.

Five-year plan

All interested cities and provinces must get their plans approved by Beijing before they can implement their own markets.

Beijing is making final preparations for its next five-year plan, which will be adopted in March.

Offset standards: how to spot the good schemes

• --> Regulated, or 'compliance', carbon markets, which are governed by international rules defined in the Kyoto Protocol, and which include Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. (Some uncertainty hangs over CDM's future post-2012, with negotiations for a successor to Kyoto still very much in the balance.) A number of national schemes also fall into this category.

• --> Voluntary carbon markets, which are unregulated and include a range of different trading relationships and voluntary project standards. Many emphasise social benefits as well as carbon ones.

These markets differ radically in the way they operate and who they cater for. The compliance market is aimed mainly at large energy-intensive industries that need to purchase huge numbers of credits (usually at the cheapest possible price). Although open to all, this market is dominated by companies who have compulsory targets under the Kyoto Protocol or other national or regional 'cap-and-trade' systems. As such, the credits they buy tend to be generated by major industrial-scale projects - such as cleaning up emissions from Chinese factories - which have relatively few benefits for local communities, and are hardly inspiring stories to tell.

The CDM projects share, in theory, the ambitions of the Millennium Development Goals for alleviating poverty. However, unless they are certified to the Gold Standard (see below), this remains more theory than practice.

In contrast, the voluntary market, which is what any company considering offsetting out of choice will be dealing with, has a much wider range of customers, from individuals to large companies, with very different needs and aspirations, resulting in a much broader range of projects. For these buyers, voluntarily purchasing relatively lower volumes of credits, price is often not the overriding concern. They are for the most part buying because they see the ethical, strategic or reputational benefit of doing so, and so the provenance of the credits, and the story behind them, become more important factors in their purchasing decisions.

The voluntary market can also act as a kind of proving ground for technologies, which later go on to be recognised in the compliance market. This happened with efficient cookstoves, for example, and may well do so with water filters (which qualify for offset funding because they avoid the need to purify water by boiling it - usually using wood as fuel).

Because the compliance market is regulated internationally, you might assume it is more tightly governed. In fact, there have been a number of high-profile allegations of dubious behaviour or worse. Recently, it was alleged that some Chinese chemical companies were deliberately ramping up production of HFC-23, a highly potent greenhouse gas, purely to make money from its destruction via CDM finance.

That's not to say the voluntary market has always been a pillar of rectitude. In its early days at least, a lack of rigorous standards undoubtedly saw some poor projects slip through the net. But partly because of all the criticism, voluntary standards have recently become a great deal tighter, under the influence of the International Carbon Reduction and Offset Alliance (ICROA). This includes the vast majority of respectable offset providers, and was itself set up to promote the highest standards of industry practice.

The standards are not entirely uniform, however, and that's no bad thing. It can help encourage innovation, and spur providers to design products for a range of buyers. And because the voluntary market is just that - voluntary - it is buyers who have the bargaining power: this in itself is helping drive standards up, as after all the criticism, no-one wants to be seen buying - or selling - a sub-standard offset.

Raising the standard

There are now around 20 standards covering the voluntary market, offering various degrees of rigour. Some are specialist - aimed at forestry offsets, for example. As Jonathon Porritt points out, though, while a wide range of standards may encourage innovation, it also ferments confusion among consumers. Now, however, two have have emerged as widely respected, notably the Gold Standard and the Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS).

Each standard is endorsed by ICROA, and includes tough verification elements to avoid the classic 'elephant traps' of non-additionality, leakage and impermanence (see box). On top of this, it is now standard practice among ICROA members to guarantee offsets, so if they don't materialise from one project, another must be provided as a replacement.

Further assurance is provided by the rapid adoption of a registration system. First established in 2007, this allocates a unique serial number to each project and each tonne of CO2 reduction achieved, and keeps a record of all the purchases. Offsets are tracked for life, traded securely and 'retired' permanently. So in theory this means they cannot be double counted, and project developers and offset providers alike cannot cheat the system. In a surprisingly short time, the registries have made the voluntary carbon market as transparent, if not more so, than the regulated market.

All this rigour makes it doubly frustrating that, for now, the UK Government has failed to include any of the voluntary market standards in its best practice scheme, which only recognises offsets validated by the CDM - a decision described by Forum's Iain Watt as "utterly pointless... The Government was meant to be setting acceptable standards for the voluntary market, now participants are just not bothering (with UK verification)." ICROA decries "the marginalisation of voluntary projects". Ed Hanrahan of ClimateCare agrees, arguing that if the Government is serious about encouraging offsetting as a key strategy, then it really should recognise the Gold Standard and the VCS.

Such has been the outcry from inside and outside the industry, that many expect the Government to change its mind on this before long.

Seeing the wood for the trees: offsets and forests

Forestry was the earliest target for offset funding, and no wonder. Everyone loves the idea of planting trees for the future. One of the first specialist offset companies (along with ClimateCare) was originally called Future Forests - now the Carbon Neutral Company.Some early forest offsets drew sharp criticism, however, and were found wanting on the three key 'tests' of additionality, permanence and leakage. Wary of being associated with something so controversial, many organisations stopped buying forest offsets altogether. But recently they've returned to favour, not least because of renewed focus on the speed and scale with which the world's tropical forests are being destroyed.

This has in part been encouraged by the conclusions of the Stern Review, which warned that rainforest loss alone would, in just four years, release more carbon into the atmosphere than every flight from the dawn of aviation until 2025. Forest conservation is also now part of the global climate negotiations, with attention focused on the potential to reduce emissions caused by deforestation or degradation (REDD, as it's known). While there is no guarantee that this will deliver, it could end up providing a massive shot in the arm for rainforest protection (see 'Can finance save forests?'). Already, some forest governments are eyeing up the success of Belize in attracting funding from Norway (which is channelling its substantial oil earnings into forest protection). Peru, for example, wants to incorporate REDD into a broad conservation strategy that will cover 54 million of its estimated 64 million hectares of rainforest, with a final goal of eliminating all emissions from deforestation and degradation.

A number of forest projects have now won accreditation under both regulated and voluntary standards, such as Plan Vivo, specifically designed for forestry by the Edinburgh Carbon Management Centre. While any forest offset will require fierce scrutiny to make sure it meets acceptable standards, it's fair to say that it's no longer the neglected member of the family.

Elephant traps (and how to avoid them): Three key tests for any credible offset scheme

Additionality

If a project funded by offset money would have happened anyway, without that finance, then it can't credibly claim to offset carbon. So, for example, if China were to insist that all new power generation projects in a particular district must be renewable, then any renewable energy offset projects yet to be undertaken there would fail the additionality test.

Safeguard Thorough checks carried out as part of a verification process, ensure that there were no funds already in place to enable such a project, or that it wasn't simply required by law. Additionality remains a complex issue. "It is part of the risk of our business," explains Edward Hanrahan. "It's one reason why we specialise in real development projects in the least developed countries, especially in Africa," as in such regions, it is far less likely that the projects would have gone ahead without carbon financing.

Leakage

If implementation of a project causes higher emissions elsewhere, these are referred to as leakage. It's a particular danger when conserving an area of forest which may already be under pressure, since that could simply result in the forest destruction happening nearby - for example, by people gathering firewood. It can also be a risk where investment in renewables might lead to polluting power (for example, diesel generators) simply being shifted elsewhere.

Safeguard Ensure that there is adequate protection for any neighbouring forest; or if the project involves tree planting, make sure that this doesn't displace agricultural land. Establish careful baselines for all relevant activity in the region of the project concerned.

Permanence

Usually referring to forest projects. If you buy credits now which assume the trees are still going to be there, soaking up carbon, in 30 years time, you're risking all the accumulated CO2 being released should the forest be inadvertently destroyed or felled.

Safeguard As well as trying to make sure there is long term land tenure, to minimise the threat of nasty surprises, responsible providers sometimes use a virtual 'buffer zone': holding back a proportion of credits in case of unforeseen circumstances such as these.

Enel Says EU Should Limit Scope, Delay Ban on Industrial Gas Offsets

The European Union regulator should limit the scope and delay the start of a planned ban on carbon offsets in its emissions-trading system to avoid market distortions, according to Enel SpA, Italy’s biggest utility.

The European Commission, the 27-nation bloc’s regulatory arm, is considering a ban as of 2013 on the use of United Nations-sponsored credits related to industrial gases including hydrofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide. The EU wants to present its proposal to member states “as soon as possible,” Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard said today.

The EU is facing “relentless” lobbying by Enel, RWE AG and E.ON AG, the climate group CDM Watch said yesterday in a report. The future of the UN Clean Development Mechanism, the world’s second-biggest carbon market, and other tools to cut greenhouse gases linked to heat waves, floods and more-intense storms will be on the agenda when envoys worldwide meet Nov. 29 in Cancun Mexico to discuss a climate-protection framework for when the 1997 Kyoto Protocol expires at the end of 2012.

“If the commission pursues the idea of enforcing quality restrictions, it should bear in mind that operators took commitments in the CDM market with a long-term perspective, relying on the fact that the EU emissions trading system would last beyond the Kyoto compliance period,” Giuseppe Deodati, Enel’s head of carbon strategy, said by e-mail today.

Long-Term Commitments

While HFC-23 projects represent less than 1 percent of all registered CDM projects, their credits account for half of the 450 million offsets issued so far. The 19 projects cutting the gas under the UN program are located mainly in China and India.

HFC-23 is a by-product of HCFC-22, used in air-conditioning and refrigeration. The EU is concerned that projects generating offsets may be increasing HCFC-22 output simply to get credits for controlling HFC-23 discharges, creating windfall profits for investors and undermining the integrity of Europe’s carbon cap- and-trade program, the world’s largest.

Enel is involved in seven projects that cut HFC-23 emissions in China with companies including Deutsche Bank and Spain’s Endesa SA. According to Bloomberg data, the projects have issued 100.5 million credits, valued at 1.2 billion euros ($1.6 billion) at today’s prices. They are expected to cut HFC- 23 by a total of 239 million tons of CO2 equivalent by 2012.

“We believe the EU should limit the restrictions to new projects, and to already registered projects after expiry of the first crediting period, which for most industrial-gases projects expire by 2014 at the latest,” Deodati said.

Cheaper Alternative

EU allowances for December 2010 traded 0.4 percent down today at 14.88 euros a ton in London. UN offsets for delivery in the same month were 0.8 percent weaker at 12.22 euros a ton.

More than 11,000 facilities in the EU cap-and-trade program may now use UN credits, which are cheaper than EU allowances, for compliance with their pollution quota.

In the current five-year trading period through 2012, the installations in the EU cap-and-trade program can swap as many as 1.6 billion UN credits with EU permits on a one-for-one basis, according to the commission. The EU average annual emissions cap for that period is 2.04 billion tons of carbon dioxide. One permit represents one ton of CO2.

‘Unintended Consequences’

“If the commission pushes forward a proposal on qualitative restrictions, it must clarify the objectives and the principles driving the decision to ban certain project types,” Deodati said. “If these principles are not applied, the unintended consequences could be market distortions, fragmentation, credit supply gap in a moment when no other alternative mechanism is available, discouragement of future investments and severe undermining of trust in the international negotiation process.”

Carbon traders have said delays in issuing offsets and the possibility of new EU restrictions may leave them with credits that are ineligible for use in the third phase of the EU’s carbon program from 2013 and perhaps the current trading period. The European Federation of Energy Traders said in September that the “complete regulatory uncertainty” over the use of offsets in the EU was unsustainable.

UN offsets include two types of credits: Emission Reduction Units and Certified Emissions Reductions. The latter, generated under the UN Clean Development Mechanism and known as CERs, are are awarded to pollution-cutting projects in developing nations.

“Obviously, the restrictions should be based on when the emissions reductions are achieved, and not when the credits are issued, as operators should not be penalized for delays in CER issuance process,” Deodati said. “This would approximately halve -- by 800 million tons -- the credit pipeline from these projects to 2020, freeing up significant demand volumes.”

‘Windfall Profits’

Regulators of the CDM are also ramping up scrutiny after allegations that some developers are seeking excessive credits related to HFC-23, whose warming potential is 11,700 times more powerful than CO2. They are assessing whether the methodology for awarding those offsets should be changed.

“Regarding windfall profits it’s worth noting that CDM flows toward China are justified by the objective to curb global emissions where it is most effective, and to involve developing countries in mitigation actions,” Deodati said.

E.ON, Germany’s largest utility, said the EU should allow for an “appropriate transition period” before changing its rules on accepting offset credits. In a letter responding to CDM Watch, E.ON also said UN carbon regulators have a certification process that is “very robust.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-19/enel-says-european-union-should-limit-scope-delay-start-of-co2-offset-ban.html

Push from Local Governments

Unexpected growth in wind power seems to have two causes: the increased pressure on the international oil market and the active encouragement of local governments. China's economic growth has exerted a great demand for energy, and unpredictable oil prices and diminishing oil reserves have forced the government to seek alternatives. Wind, solar and biomass energy research has experienced a stampede of Chinese scientists in recent years.

Yang Xuhua, head of the Changma Wind Farm, is optimistic about its profitability.

China is rich with exploitable wind power potential estimated at 1 billion kW, and its utilization is less complicated than the hydropower resources that currently dominate the green energy supply of the country. China's wind resources are mostly found on its desolate Gobi deserts and offshore areas, so development does not involve population relocation or farmland requisition. By comparison, the Three Gorges project submerged 20 districts, cities or counties in Hubei and Chongqing, necessitating the relocation of 1.13 million residents.

Local governments have certainly leapt on the wind power bandwagon. The Yumen municipal government has switched the pivot for its future growth to this sector from its previous economic backbone, oil. The city was born and grew out of the Yumen Oilfield – cradle of China's oil industry. After 70 years of exploitation, Yumen was listed by the state as an "energy-exhausted" city. Agriculture is Yumen's second largest industry. Though the Hexi Corridor is fertile, and local farmers' incomes are higher than the national average, arable land on this strip of the valley is limited. Where will Yumen find its next bonanza? This question troubled Zhan Shunzhou, secretary of the CPC Yumen Municipal Committee, for many years.

In 1996, Yumen imported four 300-kW wind turbines from Denmark and set up its first wind farm as a trial. The city's theoretical wind resources exceed 30 million kW, with 20 million kW exploitable. So far Yumen has installed a total of 510,000 kW generation capacity, making it the largest wind energy base in Gansu and the fifth largest in China.

Chicken-Egg Enigma

To attract wind power enterprises, Yumen offers free land for construction projects. The 30-square-kilometer land for the 200,000-kW Changma farm means a significant proportion of the capitalization has been accomplished for CECIC-HKC (Gansu). Following behind generation enterprises are turbine manufacturers. The transportation cost of aerogenerators is high, accounting for 7-9 percent of the total. Manufacturing such equipment near wind bases proposes to be lucrative. So far Yumen has introduced 10 wind turbine and related equipment manufacturers. A thermal power plant is also needed to balance the output of a wind farm, as well as big power consumers that can absorb surplus output that the local grid is incapable of transmitting. These enterprises will lead to an employment and economic boom whose process poses questions no less complicated than "What comes first – the chicken or the egg?"

Wu Shengxue, deputy director of the Jiuquan Municipal Development and Reform Commission and director of the Energy Development Office, elaborated on the process using facts and figures. The construction of wind farms and the arrival of related manufacturers have brought capital, logistics and human resources to Jiuquan. The municipal government estimates that its 2009 fiscal allotment will be more than double the 2008 figure of RMB 2.2 billion. Service industry growth has erupted: all the hotels are at full capacity; train tickets to Jiuquan are in chronically short supply; and discounted airfares are hard to get. Locals prosper; the average wage has seen an increase of 12 percent annually.

Within its domain of 10 square kilometers, Gansu Jiuquan Industrial Park has 19 wind power generation equipment manufacturers, including the country's top three. They produce turbines, blades, shafts, cables and all the other equipment that a wind farm needs. The total investment of the park is RMB 5.7 billion, and next year it will reach a production capacity of 1,700 aerogenerators valued at RMB 10 billion. By 2015, its production capacity is expected to double, reaching an output value of RMB 25 billion that translates into a total installed capacity of 1.5 million kW. This output capacity will meet the needs of wind farms within 500 kilometers of the park. Currently, the park employs 8,600 people, and that figure is expected to reach 12,000 next year.

Development Discrepancies

The rapid growth of wind farms has produced some problems that have caught the attention of relevant departments. For example, most wind farms are located in unpopulated grasslands, wastelands and deserts, far away from existing power grids. Even if a wind farm can be built, power transmission is a problem.

According to Wang Jun, director of the New and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Bureau, China currently faces four problems in wind power development: technical weaknesses in aerogenerator design and key components production, absence of a wind power service system, lack of wind power experts and technicians, and discrepancies between grid construction planning and wind farm building. At the moment, China's grid equipment is relatively backward, and technical standards for connecting wind power into the existing grids do not exist. As long as these technology alignment problems persist, wind power development is hobbled.

As beneficiaries of this new industry, local governments have been active in solving such problems. Since the output of wind electricity is unstable and channeling the full output is a problem, Yumen has introduced some high energy-consuming enterprises to absorb the surplus. In view of its generous water resources, the city plans to build a hydropower station as a power supply adjustor, by using surplus wind power to lift water then release it to generate hydroelectricity when wind power output is weak.

Jiuquan has worked out a similar complementary scheme by making use of its rich photovoltaic resources during the day, when wind is weaker than at night. On August 28, 2009 the cornerstone was laid for a 10,000-kW photovoltaic project in Dunhuang, another city under the jurisdiction of Jiuquan. By 2010, Jiuquan's photovoltaic output will reach 200,000 kW, which will increase to 2.5 million kW by 2015 and 10 million kW by 2020.

CECIC has also planned a concurrent photovoltaic project for the second stage of Changma. By then, glistening photovoltaic equipment will be set between those towering wind turbines.

 http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/ctenglish/se/txt/2009-11/26/content_231445_2.htm

High on Wind Power

SEVERAL huge matrixes of wind turbines, towering 70 meters high and wielding blades that stretch out 35 meters, rise abruptly on the vast expanse of the barren Gobi desert in northwestern China's Gansu Province. Here you can find the Changma Wind Farm, the first stage of construction in the Jiuquan Wind Power Base – China's first wind power project in the tens of million kW classification. The ground-breaking ceremony took place on August 8, 2009, and by September 13 all 134 aerogenerators had been installed.

Winds of change: by the end of 2008 China had constructed 239 wind power farms with a total installed capacity of 12.17 million kW.

The Changma farm is a joint venture between the China Energy Conservation Investment Corporation (CECIC) and Hong Kong Construction (Holdings) Limited (HKC). Though 20 kilometers from downtown Yumen in Jiuquan City, it is not alone in this wilderness; on one side of it stands the 161,000-kW State Grid Longyuan Wind Farm and on the other is the 100,000-kW Datang Power Gansu Wind Farm. Both the State Grid Corporation of China and the Datang International Power Generation Co., Ltd. are leading the country in electricity generation. Other major power enterprises possessing wind power properties within the jurisdiction of Yumen include the China Huadian Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation.

Yang Xuhua is the head of the Changma farm, and concurrently deputy general manager of CECIC and general manager of CECIC-HKC (Gansu) Wind Power Co., Ltd. Caught in the upsurge of wind power construction, he has recently had to spin much faster than those turbine blades. Just winding up the construction of a 100,000-kW wind farm in Xinjiang's Dabancheng, and a 400,000-kW one in Hebei's Zhangbei, he arrived in time for the installation of the 200,000-kW wind power units at Changma. Still on his hands are the ongoing 400,000-kW project in Zhangbei and the preparation for the 200,000-kW second stage of Changma to be launched next year. The number of wind farms his company will build in Gansu amount to a total installed capacity of one million kW.

The first stage of Changma farm is an RMB 1.7 billion investment. Though the cost of wind power is high, Yang expects his enterprise to be profitable, given its operation and management experience and the policy support for new energy. After all, the state's purchase price for wind electricity is RMB 0.54 per kW/h, much higher than that for hydro and coal electricity. He did a simple calculation: planned obsolescence for the wind turbines is 20 years; the bank loan will be paid back within 14 years, and the RMB 700-800 million that the farm generates in the remaining six years will be pure profit, not counting the reutilization of the steel shafts and blades from the original generators.

Nature was on his side too, providing a site that is a natural passageway for easterly and westerly winds. Jiuquan is located in the Hexi Corridor between the Qi-lian and Beishan mountains in northwestern Gansu. Its territory of 195,000 square kilometers makes it larger than some southern provinces, even if two-thirds of it are Gobi desert and sandy deposits. This strip of flat land between two mountain ranges is a natural funnel for winds, whose annual average speed reaches 7.9 meters per second at an altitude of 70 meters above Yumen and increases to 8.3 meters further eastward atop Jiuquan's Guazhou County. The average annual wind energy resources of the two sites each exceed 20 million kW. Of the 8,760 hours in a year, the duration of effective the wind resources in Jiuquan amounts to 6,500 hours, including 2,300 hours when the wind is strong enough to power full-capacity electricity generation.

There was every reason for China to choose Jiuquan as the site for its largest wind power demonstration project. According to the plan, construction of the wind power base will be undertaken jointly by Guazhou County, Yumen City and Subei County of Jiuquan and will achieve an installed capacity of 5.16 million kW by 2010, and 12.71 million kW by 2015. The static investment for the entire project is estimated at RMB 120 billion. A 750-kV transmission grid is under construction and will go into service next year. In addition, a 4-million-kW thermal power plant has also been listed in the state plan as an adjustor to even the base's output.

The wind base is the fourth mega project in western China, following west-to-east natural gas transmission, oil transmission and the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. When completed, the total installed capacity of the Jiuquan base will be comparable to that of the Three-Gorges hydropower project. So the locals call it the "Terrestrial Three Gorges."

According to Shi Pengfei, vice president of the Chinese Wind Energy Association, in 2008 the National Energy Bureau listed wind power development as a central plank in the country's power structure, and started planning and construction of six wind energy bases in the tens of million kW classification. Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Hebei and Jiangsu were selected for their rich wind energy resources.

As a demonstration project, Jiuquan has already pulled ahead of the other five. The bureau has also signed off on plans for 20 million kW wind power in southeastern and northern Hami in Xinjiang. Inner Mongolia will host a more impressive one with a total installed capacity of 50 million kW. Hebei Province will build to a total capacity of 10 million kW in its coastal and northern areas. Of the 10 million kW wind power designed for Jiangsu, 7 million kW will be generated at an offshore base, already dubbed the "Maritime Three Gorges" to continue the nickname theme.

The Chinese government declared the goal for wind power capacity to be 5 million kW by the end of 2009. However, experts say the actual installed capacity will amount to 10 million kW by the end of 2009 and reach 30 million kW by 2010 – 10 years ahead of the government's target.

http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/ctenglish/se/txt/2009-11/26/content_231445.htm

North African Crops to Be Hit Hardest By Climate Change

North African agriculture will be the worst affected by climate change, according to an assessment of how 50 key crops will perform around the world under increasing temperatures over the next 40 years.

Climate change will raise average crop productivity until 2020, after which it will decline by 5-10 per cent by 2050, according to research carried out by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Colombia.

The results were presented last week (17 November) at a press conference to announce the launch of a Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) mega-programme to address the effects of climate change on food security.

CIAT researchers calculated the 'climatic potential to produce food' for 50 of the world's most important crops. This is the hypothetical best-case scenario in which crops can be shifted to more suitable zones to avoid the worst, or exploit the best, climate impacts.

They concluded that most of the short-term gains until 2020 will be seen in the Northern Hemisphere.

In East Africa, similar patterns will be seen, with beans - known as the protein of the poor - predicted to experience yield losses of 3-5 per cent. North Africa will experience the worst effects, with 80 per cent of its crops losing productivity to 2050 and beyond.

"There is no single region where all crops are losing productivity," said Jarvis, "but people are depending on very specific crops for their food security, and in many cases the crop they're growing today is going to lose out in the future.

"Local cultures may need to change their practices by growing different crops from what they grow today. That is obviously quite an upheaval for those communities, and it's something that we need to work towards and try to avoid if possible," he said.

Even in areas where significant increases in crop yields are seen, there will be other knock-on effects, he added.

For example, farmers on the Indo-Gangetic plain are already experiencing lower wheat yields because of increased temperatures. Changing wheat planting times means changing rice planting times - as the two are grown in cycles - which causes problems with irrigation.

The Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security programme, which will be formally announced on December 4 at the climate change conference (COP 16) in Cancun, Mexico, will pool knowledge on the impacts of climate change on food security to try and find a way forward.

The programme aims to reduce poverty in targeted regions by 10 per cent, and reduce the number of rural malnourished poor by a quarter, by 2020. It also hopes to put agriculture on the post-2012 international climate-change agenda.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201011230002.html

These businesses would not have been able to apply for carbon credits on their own, due to their small size, said Karin Ireton, Standard Bank’s sustainability director, but by working in a consortium, carbon finance became a possibility.

http://www.climateclick.com/2010/11/africa-could-gain-huge-financial.html